U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is chaotic. This may be by accident or else the result of stupidity. But it is also partially by design. In his ghost-written books about business, Trump describes the benefits of keeping the other side off guard with unexpected negotiating tactics. Similarly, beyond the world of business negotiations, Trump believes in the “madman theory” of foreign policy, in which being less predictable helps him gain concessions because other foreign leaders do not know how credibly to take his threats. In other words, the chaos is part of the policy.
The world has seen this play out over the first eight weeks of Trump’s new term in office.
On tariffs, Trump threatened Canada and Mexico, with which he renegotiated a free trade deal during his first term, with a blanket 25 percent tariff. He has now backed down twice in two months on following through, once at the very last moment and once after having briefly imposed the import duties. The uncertainty this has created with regard to the North American business environment has led to lower consumer confidence, declining U.S. stock markets and concerns about a potential recession. Meanwhile, Trump has slowly ratcheted up tariffs on China, threatened the European Union with far-reaching trade restrictions and moved to increase tariffs on metal imports, resulting in counter-tariffs and popular anger targeting U.S. businesses all across the globe.
