In early February, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ordered the deployment of 10,000 members of the National Guard to patrol the country’s northern border with the United States, one of the key demands made by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump to avoid, or at least postpone, the imposition of blanket tariffs on Mexican goods exported to the United States. Although the National Guard’s mobilization was a clear capitulation to Trump’s ultimatum, Sheinbaum had already signaled from the early days of her presidency that she intended to revamp the country’s security strategy. So while Trump has now gone ahead with those tariffs despite Sheinbaum’s conciliatory gesture, it is still worth examining the deployment’s impact on and implications for Mexico’s security landscape.
The primary objective of the deployment is to reduce the number of migrants reaching the U.S. border as well as to combat drug trafficking, particularly of fentanyl. Trump has repeatedly demanded that Mexico increase its efforts to tackle these issues and has successfully weaponized his demands by tying them to the import tariffs he has now imposed, which could have disastrous effects for Mexico’s manufacturing and export-oriented economy depending on how long they are maintained. Additionally, his administration designated six major Mexican criminal groups as terrorist organizations, exerting further pressure on Mexico and increasing the risk of U.S. intervention in its southern neighbor’s security affairs. These actions will have long-lasting repercussions not only in the bilateral relationship between the North American partners but also for Mexico’s crime and security dynamics for years to come.
So far, the results of the National Guard’s deployment have been positive, albeit modest. Official data shows that the “northern border operation,” as it is referred to by Mexican authorities, has led to more than 500 arrests and the seizure of just under 7 tons of narcotics, mainly methamphetamine, marijuana, cocaine and fentanyl. It is, however, too early to tell whether these indicators signal a sustained improvement, especially in a region as problematic as Mexico’s northern border. Criminal groups have infiltrated myriad municipal administrations in this area, and over the course of decades they have built complex smuggling networks and even sophisticated underground infrastructure to traffic illicit substances. Although the deployment has not yet sparked widespread confrontations between the authorities and criminal groups, violent flareups tend to follow mobilizations of law enforcement. As such, the entire region will remain vulnerable to disruptions of public order, such as shootings, attacks on private and public infrastructure, and road blockades.
