NEW DELHI, India—The growing convergence between the U.S. under President Donald Trump and Russia under President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine is catalyzing two opposite views among policymakers and analysts about the emerging world (dis)order and how to navigate it. Both were on prominent display among participants at last week’s Raisina Dialogue, a global conference hosted by the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
One reaction is that Washington’s about-face on Ukraine vindicates the strategy of multi-alignment adopted by middle and regional powers in the Global South, including large countries like India but also small ones like the United Arab Emirates. Anwar Gargash, the influential foreign policy adviser to the UAE’s president, said as much during his appearance at the Raisina Dialogue. Referring to Trump’s reversal of U.S. policy on Ukraine specifically, Gargash argued that countries like the UAE, but also Saudi Arabia, India, Turkey and others, were right to resist siding unconditionally with one camp or the other in the conflict, despite pressure from the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden to do so.
To be sure, these countries criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but this did not prevent them from talking to Moscow and continuing to buy Russian weapons, oil and gas. In their view, the fact that Washington has now U-turned proves that they made the right call all along. In fact, they argue, now that Washington is pursuing direct talks with Moscow over the war as well as the broader U.S.-Russia relationship, it’s no surprise that these negotiations are being hosted by Saudi Arabia, rather than by “aligned” countries in Europe or East Asia. After all, Riyadh resisted being pushed into taking sides, instead leveraging its ties with both Russia and Ukraine, as well as Kyiv’s Western backers, to safeguard the country’s autonomy. As a result, it is now perceived as neutral ground and an honest broker in the talks.
